We have seen an upturn in the starter home market as those first time buyers are taking advantage of the 8,000.00 tax credit. However, that shot in the arm ends in November, what will help sustain the industry when it is gone? What we need to do is look at a program that worked very well for years, the Down Payment Assistance programs, they produced over 50,000 home sales per month across the nation. When you take that many out of the market, it is going to have an negative market effect.
July of 2008 the proverbial baby was thrown out with the bathwater in the "Housing Bail Out Bill." Down Payment Assistance programs such as Nehemiah, AmeriDream, and others were outlawed and blamed for the high rate of foreclosures that melted down our housing market. The reality is that the Down Payment Assistance programs, or DPAs were not the problem. If we look at the loans that foreclosed in the sub-prime market, none of them used DPAs. It was FHA loans that were tied to DPA programs, in fact nearly 80% of all FHA loans were actually tied to an DPA, it was these down payment programs that kept FHA alive during the mortgage industries deep dive into the sub-prime lending market.
However there are many both in and out of our industry who are more than happy to not do the mental exercise to understand the true causes, and take the intellectually lazy approach of blaming the DPA as well. I have heard countless Realtors, some lenders, and even the president of one of the builders who fell victim to this downturn blame them, and parrot the phrase and idea of "skin in the game." There is a belief by many that "if these buyers only had some skin in the game," if only they had put some of their own money down they wouldn't have gone into foreclosure. It is possible that there could have been a small percentage who this might have made a difference, but I strongly doubt it. The problem is with this theory is that the math simply doesn't add up. We need to take the emotion out, and look at the math, if we do logic might prevail.
Let's look at what happened on the bulk of those DPA loans that did foreclose. First of all, the DPA was attached to a much bigger factor, they were used with FHA 2-1 buydowns. When this was the most popular loan it was because the seller/builder could legally pay up to 6 points or 6% of the mortgage up front to buy down the interest rate 2 points for the first year, 1 for the second, and then the loan would go to a standard rate the third year through the 30th. The FHA allowed the buyer to be qualified at the first year rate, not considering the increase in the rate guaranteed to come the very next year. Houston, we now have a problem. Then we combine that with too many builders who simply broke the existing laws, that were part of the DPA programs to begin with, by raising the purchase price 4% to "give" a tax deductible "gift" to the buyers through the DPA. The law clearly stated that the price couldn't be raised to use for DPA, it had to be a gift. Yet, builders would show this increase directly on their purchase agreements openly flaunting the law. They also raised the price 6% to buy down the rate. This caused a 100,000.00 home to be sold to the buyer for 110,000.00 with a mortgage of 107,000.00, and the buyer had "no skin in the game."
Now for that math I was promising you, and proof from my perspective, that DPAs were not part of the problem, but can be part of the solution.
Starting in Indianapolis, yes we were the first to really see this play out, and were the #1 city in foreclosures for several years ahead of the rest of the nation. There were a handful of builders, and then spin off Real Estate companies who worked a system of one size fits all mortgages. If you dealt with them you were going to be looking at a Nehemiah and FHA 2-1 buydown, it mattered not if it was a logical loan for your income and job situation, it allowed you to buy more so that it what you got. I actually left the industry in 2003 after my builder was purchased by one of those who pushed this program, and started a Real Estate business advertising myself as "The Educator" begging you not to go in alone. I refused to put people in this program, unless it actually fit, like all loans they are developed for specific needs, but are often abused by the industry. I can see that this message is going to need to be multiple posts, so I will show you the math here and revisit it later.
Here is an example:
100,000.00 retail purchase price of new home.
4,000.00 added to purchase price by builder to pay for "gift" to DPA company. (illegal)
6,000.00 added to purchase price by builder to pay for max 2-1 buydown.
110,000.00 New purchase price
3,800.00 Gift toward down payment paid by builder to DPA company.
500.00 kept by DPA company as fee.
3,300.00 down payment given to buyer through mortgage company by DPA company.
106,700.00 mortgage amount of loan.
I won't add in Mortgage Insurance, Homeowner's Insurance, or HOA fees since they are more or less static throughout these examples.
1st Year Payment 4% 2nd Year Payment 5% 3rd-30 Year Payment 6%
509.40 p & i 572.79 p & i 639.72 p & i
10.00 tax 10.00 tax 233.33 tax
519.40 / mo 582.79 / mo 870.05 / mo
Even if the seller raised the price to "gift" the down payment, which they shouldn't have, but often did, there is no way the 19.79 /mo (the amount of payment that would have been reduced if the buyer put up their own 3,300.00 put them under. Any more than those who were deficit spending 350.00/mo were going to worry about the "skin in the game" and not go into foreclosure.
What happened here is that the buyer was qualified at the first year payment no matter the status of their jobs and potential income growth, or not. The first year in Indiana, you pay for the bare land on taxes, the second year you will owe for the home, but it likely won't be assessed yet. The buyer should be taught to set up a savings account to put an extra 100.00 a month to pay for the second year taxes when due. However, since this usually wasn't done they owe two years in their account the third year. If you look at this you will see that their payment that they qualified for is now 350.65/month lower than the payment they now have, a 68% increase. If they survive that third year the taxes will lower 116.67/mo in year four. Unfortunately many were not able to weather that storm.
Now the next part of the equation. They decide, "We can't afford this house, let's sell it." More bad news. Remember they paid 110,000.00 for a 100,000.00 home. By the time they paid for a Realtor to help them sell it, the seller's closing costs, they were probably upside down about 19,000.00. Meaning they would have to write a check for 19,000.00 to sell it, so they just gave the lender back the keys.
HR-600 is back in committee in the House that would allow DPAs to return. It has provisions attached to it that would carry 1,000,000.00 $ penalties if sellers, lenders, or appraisers manipulated the pricing to add the DPA to the loan, and not use it as the true gift it was always intended. It also has tiered mortgage insurance pricing tied to credit rates. It is a good bill, that would allow thousands of otherwise qualified buyers back into the market. It would be good for them, good for their families, good for our communities, and good for the overall American economy.
Please write your Congressman and ask them to support HR-600.
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I agree 100% - good job - well written - Do you have the Congress signed up for this blog yet? They all need to read this.
ReplyDeleteThanks D.J., not yet, I believe you are my first follower on this blog. Just started it last night.
ReplyDeleteI know - I was just making a point - hope it takes off for you -
ReplyDeleteThanks D.J.
ReplyDeleteI hear what you are saying, but I just don't know how this could be a good idea...
ReplyDeleteIf the seller is paying these fees, then they are artificially inflating the price.. If it's not the seller paying these fees, then it's the govt paying these fees, and that is you and me, and again the price is artificially inflated... Explain it to me so I understand how it is not inflating the price!?
If you want to penalize sellers and banks and builders etc for exploitation, then lets also write in some penalties for buyers... They decide to sell and do not want to come to the closing with cash, then make it so they can't buy a house for 7 years, or tie it to them personally.. SOMETHING!
As it stands right now, I have people buying houses after 3 years and they had a bankruptcy(which included the house), or after 5 years on a foreclosure(or it might have been visa versa). Not a hard decision to make 19k at closing, or 3-5 years of renting..
Not trying to be nasty or pick a fight, I just don't see how downpayment assistance is a good idea... And I REALLY don't like the idea of govt being involved even more in our lives.
A friend of mine has an AWESOME question/saying.... "Show me ONE, just ONE, thing that the government manages well!"
Ouch, I just did a LONG answer and my computer freaked out and lost it. Oh well. Let's go again.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your questions, they are good ones. Let me tell you my thinking on them.
One, the thing I most like about the DPA programs is that not one cent of government money is being used, it is all private sector money. I think that is why under this administration we can't get it out of committee, it doesn't cost or grow the government.
Two, when it comes to pricing and keeping from manipulating the price. That is simple to do, and very desirable.
When I was selling for Trinity Homes we used a 5,000.00 promotion in free options. This could be used for upgrades, financing costs, or DPA. The price was the same no matter your choice, and reducing the price by that 5,000. wasn't allowed. When I was the VP of sales at Guntra we estimated 30% of our sales would have DPA attached and so we added 1% to all homes as a marketing cost, the exact same percentage we estimated and added in marketing cost for Realtor fees. This is the most effective way to do this. We wouldn't take less for the home without DPA any more than we would for someone not having a Realtor.
For the secondary market, it becomes part of the negotiation process. Rather than dropping the price and running down the value of the neighborhood simply pay for the DPA. We were going to use this to sell my Mother in Law's home but the program ran out before we listed. However, we were going to offer either Zero down or a decorating allowance. This way an empty home sitting 80 miles away would help hold it's value to protect the neighbors rather than the buyer trying to steal it knowing we needed to sell it.
Does this help?
I see what you are saying on the builder side, and hear what you are saying for the secondary market, but the price is still artificially inflated.
ReplyDeleteYou have a 100k house that the seller paid 6k of the buyers downpayment. The buyer now owes 94k. They go to sell it, they do not have the 6k to pay a buyers down payment, more or less the 7% realtors want, or the 1% in other closing costs, and or the 3% in taxes, etc...
If the answer for above is that the new seller doesn't participate in the program, then how is that fair? I mean the house will have to sell conventionally(without the DPA), and if it had a hard time selling conventionally before, chances are not so hot it's going to sell conventionally now...
I'm just playing devil's advocate here... I dont really like DPA, but I have an open mind, so help me understand.
It doesn't matter if you put down money out of your pocket for the 3% now 3.5% for FHA, or used a legal used DPA your mortgage amount would be the same. In neither case would they have enough equity to turn around and sell quickly to pay selling expenses and Realtor commissions without coming out of pocket. If they put down 20% and tried to sell too soon, they may not have to come out of pocket, but would take an equity hit from the assets that they invested. The net would be the same.
ReplyDeleteOne of my compaints that I feel is rife throughout the Real Estate industry is that far too many Realtors really have almost no training in sales and negotiations, and are forced to resort to just cutting prices as their only tool. This not only doesn't work in their client's best interest, but also hurts the neighborhood values and the Realtor's own paycheck.
There are so many options available that are rarely explored that negotiates terms instead of price. For instance, I would strongly prefer to buy a condo and have the seller pay a year or two of the condo fee for me instead of reducing the price. This makes a huge difference in my cashflow and helps hold the value up in the community I just invested. For instance instead of dropping your price by 3,000.00 you pay the 250.00/mo fee for a year. That makes a 250.00 positive cash flow for me for 12 months instead of saving me 16.47 month by reducing my mortgage amount. The exact same thing can be said by using a DPA.
The DPA is a very effective free market tool that helps people who make enough money to qualify for an FHA loan, with the changes in HR-600, they have higher qualifications than do just regular FHA loans, but not the saved cash. When my son bought his home, we used this loan process, I wanted him to keep his meager savings as a reserve, as he was just getting out of college when he bought it.
I've used the nehemiah program in some of my listings... I am one of those dirty rotten realtors, but i try to keep abreast of programs available, and offer those up to my sellers, and buyers...
ReplyDeleteYou know, some people just shouldn't own a home.. They just aren't financially responsible enough for it. I saw a lot of people who utilized this program(nehemiah, etc) who really shouldn't have been getting into a home, but there they are front of the line for these programs, and front of the line for bankruptcy or foreclosure a year later.
Not to get off topic, but I work with a lot of contract for deed and lease option people... I kind of get disgusted that one of my requirements for a person buying one of my homes(via the above type of deals), is that they have to sign up for a credit counseling program.. These are adults! I shouldn't be forced to make them get their credit in order so they can qualify to buy out my deal. BUT, If I don't force them to sign up for a credit counseling program, then they rarely cash out... More profitable for me if they don't cash out, but that's not exactly ethical on my part, now is it!?
I too am one of those "Realtors," I wasn't disparaging Realtors, it is simply that many are not trained in sales and marketing skills, there were no classes required in those subjects when I went through. If you have not heard of him, there is a brilliant trainer on financial options for Real Estate out of Texas named Jeff Elias. If you can't find him on Google let me know, I have contact info. I hired Jeff to speak to my sales team a few years ago, he started talking about 2-1 and 3-1 buydowns and how wonderful they were. I got very defensive, as you can see in earlier posts I have been strongly against those 2-1 buydowns. Then he went on to explain his thinking and I had a total paradigm shift. What he said was if you had a higher end buyer who could afford to pay say 15,000.00 to buy down the rate on his 300k loan on a 3-2-1 mortgage, and who had a company that matched his 401k deposits that he would be money ahead by doing so. What he pointed out was that the buyer would get back about 5,000.00 in taxes by paying 15,000.00 in prepaid interest, then if he raised his 401 k deposits by the amount he would save each month with the buydown at the end of one year he would have his 15,000.00 back and would profit on the next two. WOW, that blew me away. We often, all of us, get so stuck in our comfort zones and paradigms we don't think of some create options that are so much better.
ReplyDeleteAs a mentor of mine likes to say, "We don't know what we don't know, and that is why we don't have. Because if we knew what we don't know, we would have what we don't have. And to know and not to do really means not to know."
hehe I work with a lot of investors, and have a couple of investing mentors... Crazy creative people that know how to get things done..
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately the banks etc have gotten burned by bad people, so they don't want to work with us ethical people...
Again, way off topic.. good discussion though!
Thanks, I really enjoyed it..Don't be a stranger.
ReplyDelete