Thursday, April 15, 2010

Suggestions For Surviving The Obamaconomy

As we all try to learn how to navigate the Obama economy, there have to be paradigm shifts in many of our plans. Even the Obama administration has been telling us that they expect this to be a "jobless recovery" whatever that means. They are warning us that this might be the "new economy" where 10% unemployment is the new "normal."

With the policies that this administration is applying they may well be right, hopefully they aren't being simply overly optimistic. There are some things that suggest that soon we will look back at 2009 as the good old days economically. If Obamacare passes Constitutional scrutiny in the Supreme Court, it is going to cause our taxes, and expenses both personally and our businesses to increase dramatically. If Cap and Trade passes, even Obama has said that it will cause our electric rates "to skyrocket necessarily." The consensus is that the average American family would see somewhere between a 1,700.00 and 3,500.00 energy tax increase per year. Then you add a Value Added Tax (VAT) would cause all food and manufactured goods to jump 18-25% in cost due to these "hidden" taxes.

The news today has shown us that home foreclosures are setting all time records. Do you remember what happened with less foreclosures in 08? We are hearing how Obamacare is causing companies large and small to have to write down huge losses this year already, and expect to look to start shedding more jobs due to these added costs. If Obama's new "Financial Bill" passes it will cause banks to quit lending if they are to be forced to write down principle on loans, who would take that risk?
There are many in the Health Insurance industry who believe that many if not most of them could well be bankrupt in 24-36 months under Obamacare.

When you look at the unemployment rates today hovering around 10% under today's new way of counting started under Bill Clinton. If we used the old way of counting before the Clinton Administration's changing the accounting rules, it would be between 17-20% when considering those who have run out of unemployment insurance or who have given up looking. How does that compare to the Great Depression?

Unemployment During the Great Depression:

1930: 8.7%
1931: 15.9%
1932: 23.6%
1933: 24.9%
1934: 20.1%
1935: 16.9%
1936: 16.9%
1937: 14.3%
1938: 19.0%
1939: 17.9%

This also proves that FDR's New Deal big government programs didn't work, just prolonged the Depression, just as Obama's are.

Then let's look at some basic math. Under Jimmy Carter his 24 months of deficit spending caused the Fed to have to print 13% more money into the system. This increased money supply caused 12% inflation, to correct that high inflation Paul Volker and the Fed raised interest rates to 21% to pull that excess cash back in.

During Obama's first year, his deficit spending has cause the Fed to increase printing money by 120% in just one year. What does that mean to coming inflation and interest rates? Can anyone say Wiemar Republic?

What I have been telling Realtor and Lender friends who have been telling me their fears and concerns is "you have a good opportunity with a paradigm shift." Most Realtors and Lenders most love their jobs because they get to help people get their dreams. It is normally a very happy time as people anticipate moving into the new home. However, today, more and more the people at the closing table are not all that excited. If however, the Realtor and lender thinks like a stock broker where you get your fees per transaction if their investor makes money or loses money.

There is going to be a massive amount of REO and HUD as well as short sale homes for the next several years. These homes will find buyers, bargain hunters, and investors who see them as rental opportunities or possible flips. As a Realtor and Lender there is still commissions to be made. There are many people who have done a good job being prepared for this down turn keeping financially liquid who are going to become wealthy out the other end. During the Great Depression those who had the cash to buy up properties for pennies on the dollar became fabulously wealthy.

If there is anything to take from this, it would be to find fun in figuring out a way to succeed if the process is fun or not. If we can turn this administration out of office and strip the programs funding we can turn things back around and have a prosperous country once again. Now is the time to hunker down and find our living and fun where we can, with hopes and dreams of better days to come!